Coup Against Wannabe-Sultan Failed – Beware The Aftermath
Yesterday’s short coup attempt (real time MoA) by parts of the military against the wannabe-Sultan of Turkey failed. Some 200 people on both sides were killed, some 1,200 wounded.
The plotters’ major mistakes were:
- to not capture Erdogan and the leaders of his political and security organizations,
- to not shut down all means of mass communication, especially the Internet, except those under their strict control,
- to not put out a trusted public face to represent the coup.
Erdogan escaped and could orchestrate the counter to the coup. He could continue to communicate with his security management, foreign politicians and his supporters. Without any well known alternative leader the public had only Erdogan to follow.
The amateurish behavior of the coup plotter opens the question of who ran this show. Was this, as some asserted early on, an Erdogan plot to seize more power?
There are three possible motives/perpetrators behind this coup:
- the Islamic movement following the preacher Fetullah Gülen, a former Erdogan ally and now arch-enemy who lives in the U.S. and has CIA relations;
- the old Kemalist secularist movement in the military and deep state;
- the Erdogan AKP movement in a false flag operation to seize more power;
There is no evidence for any of these theses and none of them clearly fits the observed pattern.
The response will be harsh. Edogan will crack down on ANYONE he politically or personally dislikes – completely independent of their involvement in the coup. All political parties, even the mostly Kurdish HDP, spoke out against the coup while it was ongoing. The religious Gülen movement also opposed it. Most of the involved soldiers were told that they were part of an exercise. It will not save any of them from Erdogan’s and his supporters’ wrath.