Goodbye Cruel World: Professor Predicts Societal Collapse in 2020s
We are living in society’s twilight years – if a professor of ecology and mathematics from the University of Connecticut is correct. Studying history as a science with variables and trends, he predicts the 2020s will see massive instability.
For some, our political future is frightening. Others find it exciting. But Professor Peter Turchin from the University of Connecticut claims that it is time to prepare for political turmoil that could rock society to its core.
Turchin is known for developing a cross-disciplinary subject known as “cliodynamics,” which treats history like any other science, with predictions and models. He has been writing about the subject for some time, but three years ago he began working on predicting the future. One of his predictions was: “We should expect many years of political turmoil, peaking in the 2020s.”
Turchin says that “the negative trends seem to be accelerating,” and that in three years, the path to instability will seem unavoidable. He was quick to point out that Donald Trump’s presidential election neither accelerates nor decelerates the process, but was simply a predicted aspect of his theory.
Turchin’s concepts include “elite overproduction,” in which the rich grow richer and relate less and less to the poor. He said that elite overproduction would result in “ideological polarization and fragmentation of the political class.” He used the 2016 election as a prime example, and explained that the Republican party has shattered into different factions consisting of Traditional Republicans, Tea Party Republicans, and Trump Populists.